Abstract:
Allen studied hundreds of construction projects and developed
an accu-rate, practically useful model of their labor profiles.
We combine Al-len’s labor profile with standard Earned Value
Management (EVM) techniques and derive a simple, practical formula
that estimates the fi-nal schedule from early project data. The schedule
estimation formula is exact; it requires no approximations. The estimate
is also surprisingly accurate and available early enough in the
project for the project manager to be able to take appropriate actions.
We use one of Allen’s real-world construction data sets to calibrate and
validate our theoreti-cal model. Early estimates of the final schedule are
remarkably accu-rate, and available early enough to be used to effect
management changes. We also explain why a current schedule estimation
method, Earned Schedule (ES), has a poor theoretical foundation
and show that our model is superior to ES in predicting construction
schedule delays. The model should provide warning of schedule delays
early enough for project managers to take corrective actions.
Keywords: Schedule estimation,
Schedule performance
index, Earned schedule,
Construction labor profile
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